How many players could come to Illuvium?
I am going to use this opportunity as things feel slow for Illuvium to speculate and discuss the potential future of the game.
Illuvium showcase has proven to us that there is lots of progress happening behind the scenes but at the moment everything feels a little boring. This isn’t helped with the sideways action of the crypto markets however there is a storm brewing and as tech companies earnings come in subpar we are going to discuss the overall markets and some of the recent shortcomings of the Illuvium timelines.
As I am waiting for larger events to happen I will keep this brief but it will still have some quality topics.
Illuvium lists on Coinbase, lets look at the stats and see if its making a major difference to the token price.
I discuss some interesting points of interest in the charts and what we might be expecting in the next few months.
When could we be getting the different Illuvium products and how the delays in timelines have affected me personally.
Illuvium AND Revdis scales with playerbase, lets make some comparisons, compare the facts and see where Illuvium might sit in the gaming heirarchy.
We will cover all of that here and more so please keep reading. I am excited to share this journey with you.
A Coinbase listing, has it really made an impact?
Coinbase listings have pumped many tokens 100%+ in the bull run and although we are in a bear market is it having a significant impact?
On October 14 we saw Coinbase, one of the largest and most crypto noob friendly exchanges in the USA. This comes shortly after Kieran went on reassuring people the team were working heavily with regulators including those within the USA and that its the reason they can be listed on tier 1 exchanges like Coinbase and Binance. Quite frankly the writing was on the wall but it does help alleviate any concerns that ILV could be marked a security, Coinbase is very particular and works very closely with regulators especially after XRP went to court.
Now what’s most important here is price and if there was any significant impact. The Coinbase listing did shoot the price upwards rapidly but not before a swift decent, you can also notice the pump several days before, whether that’s suspicious or not is anyone’s guess but I may be missing something more obvious. Its not a shock that the price didn’t moon considering Binance is the largest exchange in the world but making live easier for American investors is always a good thing for the project moving forward and I believe they were trying to time the market with this announcement. I know many in the industry that do this with exchange listings to get the best possible outcome.
As we can see from Coin market cap less than 2 weeks later Coinbase has managed to acquire about 2.5% of the trading volume which is small but still mostly volume that may not have been there before. As the token was trading sideways and coincidentally Ethereum was preparing for a move up the timing was perfect (in hindsight). More interestingly we will notice that Bibox is at the top, this is the first time I have ever seen this exchange. After a little bit of research its clear that this is a large asian exchange which shows who some of the bigger players in Illuvium are.
Upon some further research you can see the largest volumes in Bibox above. 3 of the top 4 projects are based in Web 3 Gamefi. It simply shows how easy it is to forget that not every gamer lives in an English speaking country and how some of the largest Esports competitors in the world come from places like Japan, China and Korea. It might be worth continuing to monitor these numbers and further discuss the ways Illuvium will be accommodating to those living in non-English speaking countries.
Is the Bull Run back on?
There is a lot to take a look at in the charts and we cannot cover everything but I will try to distill it into something thats more complex than my videos but still reasonably easy to understand especially if you’ve never looked at technical analysis before. Trust me it will help give you a deeper understanding of markets and what to look out for in these coming months.
I will take a look at the DXY, SPX, ETH and of course, ILV.
The first thing we will look at is the DXY. Quickly to sum up, this shows the strength of the US dollar and is inversely correlated to almost every market in the world, including Crypto. As we can see zoomed out on the weekly above the DXY has been rejected off of a long term trend line, if it breaks this it would essentially signal going to the highs of the dot com bubble and causing a major global financial crisis. If it falls then it would likely signal a pivot from the Federal Reserve, albeit short term relief. On the second chart you can see that the DXY has fallen below the 50 daily moving average confidently for the first time since February, but there’s a high chance the 100 holds up, so there is very little guarantee this is bullish for the medium to long term.
Next we will take a look at the S&P 500 Index which is essentially a culmination of 500 major stocks and an excellent indication for general sentiment of the stock market. Keeping in mind Crypto heavily correlates to its movements. On the weekly we can see a relatively confident bounce on the 200 Moving average and 233 Exponential moving average. We look at these because 40% of stocks trading is done by automated bots and those moving averages often play a large role. The SPX used these two indicators as a launchpad multiple times during its 10 year bull run only dropping below it briefly during the pandemic lows. Remaining below these for a long period of time would spell disaster across the board and should be watched closely.
Below that you can see the SPX on the daily timeframe and like a direct mirror of the DXY you can see the same moving averages proving difficult. However I fully expect it to come up and be rejected by the longer term moving averages like it has been already once before. This is the technical indicator for the Stock market bear market. A rally above this and held consistently would be extremely bullish, but could form a bull trap so remain cautious.
There isn’t a whole lot to say about Ethereum except it looks very similar to the SPX and will track closely. However it is worth noting that for the past 6 months Ethereum has acted much like a leading indicator on the overall stock market, this is probably partially due to the crypto markets being open 24/7. By this measure they can react to market sentiment way faster than stocks. Either way watch for the long term moving averages on the daily at about $1800 USD on Ethereum.
At this point in time ILV is extremely unusual. Although its movements on the macro correlate heavily to everything else on the shorter timeframes like here on the 4 hour its incredibly random and unpredictable. It is worth noting however that ILV has moved sideways for over 2 months despite token unlocks and has seen positive movement lately. It is also the first time it has been above its long term moving averages on this time frame since the All time high, so there’s a lot to be positive about. My biggest concern is how price will react as it comes into contact with these moving averages and the market decides the next step.
I hope you found all of this helpful as we approach the market together. Ultimately we don’t know what’s going to happen especially in a macro economic sense as the entire world faces crisis after crisis. But as long as you have conviction in the team and project and the projects promising end goal doesn’t change fundamentally there is nothing to worry about.
Land still isn’t here
Many people in the Illuvium community including those that follow this newsletter and my channel expected to be playing Illuvium: Zero daily by now.